Trump Account Returns: How Much Will $1,000 Grow?

Historical S&P 500 Returns

Trump Account money is invested in funds that track the S&P 500 or a broad U.S. equity index. So the question every parent asks is: how much can I expect?

Over its history, the S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of about 10% before inflation. After adjusting for inflation, that drops to roughly 7% per year. These are long-term averages across decades of data.

But averages hide a lot of variation. Some years the market gains 30%. Other years it drops 30%. What matters for Trump Accounts is the 18-year window — and that is where the data gets encouraging.

Best and Worst 18-Year Periods

Looking at rolling 18-year periods for the S&P 500, here is what the historical data shows:

• Best 18-year period: roughly 16-17% annualized returns (late 1940s through 1960s)
• Average 18-year period: roughly 10-11% annualized returns
• Worst 18-year period: roughly 3-4% annualized returns (periods starting in the late 1920s)

The critical point: no 18-year period has ever produced a negative total return. Even starting right before the Great Depression, an 18-year investor still came out ahead.

Projections: $1,000 Deposit Only

What happens if you open a Trump Account, receive the $1,000 federal deposit, and never add another dollar? Here is what that single deposit could grow to over 18 years at three different return rates.

Even at a conservative 6%, the deposit almost triples. At the historical average of 10%, it grows more than fivefold. But the real power comes when you add regular contributions.

Projections: $1,000 + $250/Month Contributions

Most families will contribute regularly on top of the initial deposit. Here is what the $1,000 deposit plus $250 per month ($3,000/year) could grow to over 18 years.

At a moderate 8% return, your child could have over $121,000 at age 18 from $55,000 in total contributions. That is more than double your money, thanks to compound growth. Try different amounts with our growth calculator.

Why Different Rates?

We show three scenarios because nobody knows what the market will do over the next 18 years. Here is what each rate roughly represents:

• 6% (conservative): Accounts for below-average market returns or higher-than-usual inflation. This is a cautious planning number.
• 8% (moderate): Slightly below the historical nominal average. Many financial planners use this as a reasonable baseline.
• 10% (optimistic): Matches the long-term historical nominal average of the S&P 500. Possible, but not guaranteed.

The Inflation Adjustment

When you see "$149,560 at 10%," remember that is in future dollars. Inflation erodes purchasing power over time. At 3% average inflation over 18 years, $149,560 in future dollars would have roughly the same buying power as $88,000 in today's dollars.

That is still a tremendous head start for an 18-year-old. But it is important to set realistic expectations. The 7% inflation-adjusted return is closer to what the money will actually feel like when your child turns 18.

What Drives Your Final Balance?

Three factors determine how much your child has at age 18:

1. How much you contribute. The $1,000 deposit helps, but regular monthly contributions make the biggest difference.
2. How long the money compounds. A newborn gets 18 years. A 10-year-old gets 8. Time is the most powerful factor.
3. What the market returns. This is the one factor you cannot control. But history strongly favors patient, long-term investors.

Want to see projections for your specific situation? Use the Trump Account growth calculator. For more on what could go wrong, read What Happens in a Market Crash? For detailed growth targets, see How Much at Age 18?